♪ >> we take you live on the discussion on president biden's upcoming trip to the middle east. -- this event is hosted by the washington institute for near east policy. >> three of my very special colleagues from around the world carry the traditional policy form in order to set the table as it were for the bite visit

outlying what the issues are, what the environment is in the countries that he will be visiting, what are the likely topics of discussions with leaders. what are the expectations, and hopefully what are the -- [inaudible] in the policy in the middle east. before we go to my colleagues had a couple of words. first, urge you when we are all done with today's event, i urge you to please go to the web page of the washington institute.org. www. washington institute.org. take a look at the analysis. there will be analysis that will not be in today session but it is a good point and it deserves to be read. i am joined by -- [inaudible]

of biden -- [inaudible] trip. i'd like to invite all of you when you're on the form -- platform to try to get [indiscernible] those of you may not have followed the routine for all of zoom that no free to put a question in the queue of zoom. if you are not, you want to be heard -- [indiscernible] >> it appears we've lost rob. i think what he was saying, are you back rob? what rob was saying is that for

those who are tuning in on this, you can those questions when this is over on the q&a function . robert -- are you -- and are you with us? >> yeah. there was a new function where you can email me directly at washington institute.org. with that i'm going to turn to my colleagues. first from israel add like to -- senior research fellow -- family program. public policy and research, and by phone one of the finest and best respected holsters --

pollsters -- of israeli politics. [indiscernible] tomorrow --tamara, the floor is yours. >> i will start by presenting the five challenges to the visit and then i have unfortunately only for opportunities for this visit. and i will look at from the public opinion of respective of course. the fifth challenge is that there is so much noise right now israel because of the transition in government. because of the upcoming elections. because of parties -- parties are uniting and it is not quite

clear what the particular background now is and the attention is related to the domestic issues rather than related to the international environment surrounding and this is something that a place against the visit because it seems to be in a way not in the right time for people to really think about the issues that will be put on the table. the second challenges, -- challenge is, the issue is no longer on the table for a number of years now. in the last four elections, we have not heard much discussion of the palestinian issue or the

possible solutions for the conflict between israel and palestinians. and i will show you in a minute what the expectations of the people are in this sin. the rays of the palestinian issue seems to, again, the out of context or at least unrealistic from the weight of -- from the point of view of the [inaudible] and forth the media amplifies for a couple years down the aggressive voices of the democrat already. therefore, biden as a democratic president, is, in a way, suspected for serving these kinds of agendas in his old party. he is looked upon as not, of

course, a member of the aggressive part of the democratic party, but as a leader who has to get his party together and therefore can or should some concession for this part of the party. particularly if elections are coming in -- on the horizon. before the challenge is the iranian church. as you will see in a minute, most israelis inc. that the legislature in israel do not see eye to eye on this critical issue. therefore, there is some suspicion here that -- if some aspect of the israeli issue are going to be negotiated, it would not be on equal footing from the point of view of the american negotiators in the israel negotiators during this activity.

last, not least, we should not forget the biden presidency comes after trump presidency which was very popular in israel. like it or not, president trump was very popular in israel and biden is less popular. he is not as unpopular as president obama was, but still, there is an issue here. it does not come easy for many israelis after years of being contacted by president trump. what are the opportunities we will come to that soon. there is much on the jewish side for the arab courts. and therefore the saudi auction it is looked on very favorably by the israel public. they are looking forward for some breakthrough and they

believe, at least to an extent, that it's possible during this visit to open the door for something. it is not quite clear what that something is, but it is on the positive side. second, there is a sin in israel that the biden -- a sense in israel that the biden administration did not put enough sensitive issues on things like settlement and therefore people or or open to listen because they do not expect it to end with some harsh policies on one side. and the third opportunity is that the parties of the center and the left are looking for renewed agenda because there is no agenda, as i mentioned, for the middle east for the last three or four years. therefore, this might be an opening and indeed, in his first

speech, prime minister's pin -- pins --pence spoke about something that alluded to that. i will share with you the data -- this is just to explain to you what is the construction of the political scene and israel right now. this is june last month. 62 set defined themselves as being on the right 24 on the center and 11 on the left. so if someone is expecting a total transformation in the outcome in the elections in the construction of the political scene, they are overoptimistic. now, supports for the two states, as you can see between

israeli and arab, there is still a majority of the two state solution. however among the jews we see 32% less than one third percent -- one third supportive of the states. and on the right 18%. at the center 55%. and on the left is 80%. so as i mentioned, the policy is not going to be very strong in the upcoming period. what are the chances that we would see a visit core with the palestinians? as you can see both the jews and the arabs are very pessimistic. 91% of the jews say very slight chances or knows chances.

and then the arabs were supportive of the two states. they are not optimistic that something is going to move ahead with the palestinians -- palestinian side. do they believe in president biden's ability to bring about a breakthrough of negotiations between israel and the palestinians to mark here -- palestinians? you can see here 80% said no they do not expect him to deliver. not because he is willing to deliver that they do not believe in the courts with the cap palestinian -- with the palestinians is not structured. it is a political issue. so even if he does his best, is ability -- to fight is limited. so the expectations that there will be a significant breakthrough with the palestinians is quite minimal as you can see, very much to

percent, only 9% was hope. so this is probably the 11% we saw on the left and one of my previous slides. now do they believe in presidents biden ability to bring a breakthrough with the palestinians by parties? as you can see left 51 percent, even on the left, they do not have high expectations. as well as on the center. very low expectations on the right and left. on all parties. what about saudi arabia? here is more optimistic. actually they are split almost in the middle. 44 sent here 44% there, so there is an opening here for some news coming with this venue adventure. -- and venture.

this is something that when president has speeches or he addresses the is really already, because there is hope your, the way there was no hope with the palestinian. do they trust the biden administration for taking israel's interests into account with regard to the overall relations between israel and the u.s.? well, it is not that rosy. as you can see, more think that, not so much, they don't just -- there is a sensation so much or even not at all. and this is in the very general sense of the israeli american relations. so i think this will be my last slide. and the most depressing slide. trust the biden take -- israel

interests into account with regard to negotiations with iran over the nuclear deal. three quarters saying no. they do not take israel's interests into account with regard to the negotiation's within iran. so, i would say, i am sure the israelis will be very welcome. i think they will waive the small flags, and walked through the streets of jerusalem, when they fly through this reits of jerusalem, the politicians will be very bright and try to get some photo ops with is that ayden, but they think that there are no real -- photo ops with president biden, but they think there are no real expectations aside from says ball -- symbolic

representation of friendship with america. >> thank you for that very useful visitation netting the stage for what israelis are expecting or in this case, not ask acting from the president's visit. i am not going to turn to dennis, my calling dennis ross and, -- the davison distinguished fellow at the washington institute -- dennis has been traveling throughout the middle east and spent quite a bit of time in israel's. he talked with israeli leaders of all political stripes, in and out of government, national security officials, politicians, and probably an ordinary person or two every now and then. so, dennis has great insight into what is happening in both israel and washington act and forth. but i know that dennis has also been and the golf recently so

this is a great opportunity to have [indiscernible] >> ok thanks rob. thanks what i would like to do is focus a little bit more on what is the american perspective going into the trip. and i think it sets a context and it does relate in some way to what tamar said and i will raise that at the end. but i would like to focus a little bit more on how the administration approaches the region. we look at what resident biden -- president biden looked at in our article. and he states he is going to mow these in our -- promote peace in a region that has conflict.

we have an interest in stabilizing things. those conflicts give rise to great disruptions and mass refugee flows. the region is a region characterized by terror we are still dealing with isis so we still have a presence. all of these factors come into play so he uses them to explain why he is making the trip now including why he is going to saudi arabia. what is interesting, is if you go back 18 months, it is not that those facts did not exist, but somehow the street she was not putting a nash making the region are priority. we are still dealing with the pandemic at its height. there are economic onset from that, but internationally the focus was on china. to the extent to which the middle east late at all it was related to the administration

desire to get back into the jcpoa with the express purpose of putting the brand new your issue back in a box that they would not have to deal with the region. recall that it took five we for the president to speak with anyone from the region. he was speaking internationally and every there region but he was not speaking leaders from the region because it was not a priority. so what has changed? the key change that i would suggest is vladimir putin's -- decision to invade ukraine. it is obviously one -- level that has highlighted the issue of oil in a way that was not the case before. we tried to deny revenue for the russian so they can continue to fight. what a mayor -- what amounts to a war of nutrition in ukraine, we are also working to replace oil. that is clearly what his broad and interest to saudi arabia

than before. but i would say it's more than that, you have the president looking geopolitically now. he sees we have a longer competition with russia. that is obviously connected to a long-term competition with china. the two seem to be trying to prevent america from doing that the president often talks about which is preserving a rules-based international system. they have a different concept of what those rules should be. in the president sees that we are involved in the longer-term competition. the longer competition saudi arabia becomes port. it is important generally because it offers a set of resources it can add to the weight of the elation that we need -- the coalition that we need to shape with competing with russia and china. but it's also when it relates to the geopolitics but also the whole question of climate change. enter the transition away from

fossil fuels. i think the president is more acutely aware of how to manage that transition. he is more acutely aware of a possible disruptions. the fact is, the transition from fossil fuels is going to take two decades. we do not want it to be characterized by disruptions where every once in a while we are now dealing with five dollars a gallon of gasoline. obviously, that is a reality right now. if you want to and it's the stable transition away from also fuels, once again, you need saudi arabia so from a geopolitical stamp wayne, from the stand weight of managing this transition from fossil fuels, from the standpoint of creating all turn it is like renewables and also alternatives arid one of the things -- investing heavily in hydrogen. this is also where the ministration and he -- united states can be operating.

-- i think that is a key factor that is caused a greater recognition of the importance of saudi arabia when we look at this trip more specifically, what is the president hoping to achieve a smart obviously, there is an issue the on stabilization. he want to vote normalization. he has talked about that. he has talked about how another one of the reasons he's going to saudi arabia is he is urging. this issue of normalization needs to be divided into two arts. one part is -- two parts. one part is security. we talk about and increase -- alliance. this has been publicly stated at this time. there's no question about what

part of what the president will do on this trip is creating greater security architecture for integration of the different military forces at least to begin with providing early warning. being able to put everybody in the same position where they all have same radar where they can -- they are aware of the launches or any gentiles headed their way. if it comes to ballistic missile for -- the trajectories can be tracked. the whole idea is to create greater integration of the capabilities of this region. the united states has provided a large number of missiles and antimissile missiles, we are not in the position to provide more, but the number that it this in the region today, if they are pooled in an integrative way they are more than sufficient to deal with the threat. the threats that are coming from

iran and iran foxy. -- proxies. the more we create an integrative approach to defend, starting with early warning and air and missile defense, the more the u.s. is embedding itself in the region. so there's a question if we will still be there. an integrative approach to security -- an argument as well for the countries in the region to do more to integrate among themselves. this will clearly be one element of the president's agenda. the other element of the president's agenda on normalization relates much to how you can build what is the reality. how do you widen it? how do you do even it? saudi arabia is not going to join -- on this visit. but again we are likely to see

some sign of movement at least two greater israeli, saudi overcurrent -- avert connections. there is a concern with the president -- probably an agreement on direct flights with israeli arabs to go to saudi arabia for hosch. -- for hajj. -- i would like to see them invest in the water infrastructure of the south was bank. -- they have acute water problems. there is an investment in wastewater treatment plants which would dramatically use the drilling of four water. none of that can be done unless there's direct work the israelis.

so this may not be what seen as political normalization but it could be reality or more -- they could be working directly with the purpose of increasing water availability for palestinians. i highlight this because it's a way to create greater -- direct contact -- the palestinians look at abraham of course as being negative. because it reverses their paradigm. -- they have not taken advantage of what was available. the irony is with the uad had. they conditioned -- exiting the territory a lot of them didn't under the trump peace plan. here is a case where what think you a was doing was preventing them from taking negative standpoints in the house and

senate but because it reverted in palestinians -- they were vetted -- they rejected it. there is much more to being open to what is error outreach to israel. -- this is a way to break the stalemate between the president and palestinians at a time where more direct palestinian negotiations would not be so clear -- and secondly if they were if there was prospect they would not change anything that this is something new and it can change. i believe one of the products of the biden's it is going to be a step-by-step coach -- approach between the saudis and israelis. a lot is done below the radar screen but i think we will see a step-by-step coach above the radar screen very what about israel? i make two points.

one tamar showed in her polling. but the u.s. saudi relationship is on the table. in israel there is a general civil of courtesy -- but there's american commitment to it but there is an issue of how to deal with the iranian nuclear issue. here i suspect there will be a difference although there will be a managing of the difference. the u.s. and as real agree that iran can never have a nuclear weapon. they disagree what is the best tactical approach to ensuring that. the administration still believes -- not a great option is the least bad of all options. the question is j coa something that is retrievable? so far they are negotiating in a way that suggests they are in no hurry to go back to it. in the meantime they continue to build an advanced their nuclear

program. so the question for the president is going to be the uranian -- iranian nuclear program -- they are drinking their downtime too close to zero. the jcpoa in any case it does not exist. in the meantime the nuclear program pushes ahead so what are your options now to affect the arena and capitalist? iranians would say we will leave in putting pressure on the iranians. so they understand the consequence of the track they are on economically and militarily as well. they could use their infrastructure. what is your approach now? this will be a major part of the discussions with the resident on what comes next. layer dealing with the president who has a deep emotional commitment to israel during he

has referred to himself as a zionist. zionism in his eyes represents what is the liberation of the jewish people. he is committed to israel and i will tell the story and wrap up. this embodies who he is and it will come through in the way he talks in israel. in 2002 at the height of his second -- i have a new be in israel at the king david hotel and nobody was there. i came down for breakfast, nobody for the people who in there, this is always a routed. nobody was there except to your joe biden and tony blinken it. and i went and sat with them and i said i know why are you here, why are you here? in said this is a time where the president of israel needs to be here. that is who joe biden is. tomorrow i saw the doubt about

how well the u.s. will take israeli concerns into account above others, i think biden will go to great lengths to simply convey who he is very and it will be interesting to see what kind of impact that has on the result. i will stop there. flex very good. thank you very much, dennis. >> very good. you very much, dennis during our want to remind everyone want to get into our conversation, music una bar at the bottom of your resume for -- bar your zoom bar. -- q and a bar at the bottom of your zoom bar. -- the founder of the emirates policy center and one of the most insightful voices for the

arab world on strategy politics and foreign relationship -- foreign relations. the biden administration has four parts, -- of course, arabs are going to be watching all parts of this to look for hints of where the president is on a wide-ranging issues, but there are specific aspects for the other arab countries, not just saudi arabia that will all be coming together on the last day of the biden zip. so get perspective on expectations, hopes, fears, perhaps. i'm delighted to introduce my friend and colleague. please, the floor is yours. >> thank you and thanks for the washington institute for

emirates policy. president biden is visiting this week -- that is a prescient -- precious opportunity for the region to its last -- to express its -- long-standing partnership with the war's most powerful country they look at it as this is a historical visit that should be welcomed, warming, and america is regionalized particularly in the ua. we know it can contribute towards bringing washington relationship in the region to a new level. a more robust foundation for u.s. allies here would be better reflected with multiple --

mutual interest, and regional security, in light of continuing shifts in the region and global strategic environment, this is more important now than ever before. as mr. wyden previous state -- mr. biden previous statement which was before the u.s. midterm election would focus on the potential and promising emerging from the medicinal game acts. -- prime example, we have generated an unprecedented lever -- level of corroboration between our countries and israel. it is likely, therefore, the major focus of the u.s. residential -- presidential will

be focused on developing a regional partnership. this includes not only security protocols, but other areas like energy, food, water security. hopefully, the visit will define the u.s. strategy -- which is essential to creating more efficient and credible tools. to save washington and as allies -- there is, in this visit, a great opportunity for -- the forum and it is the summit that can read more middle east countries together. an area that goes beyond the immediate economic security needs. and create a most sustainable --

for the regions. first, forum to create with israel in march of last year together the prime minister's -- morocco as well as the u.s. security of state. it was a watershed event establishing a new framework for regional -- the participants agreed to form six working groups of clean energy, education, and coexistence, water security, health and security, and that work should be continued if you want to move to other things.

so strengthening the regional -- between the u.s. and israel seems promising. and it comes with great expectation, but it is also not to lose sight of other issues. one of the critical challenges of meeting the demands of the luta cool sentiments for the bus -- palestinian army is conflict reducing escalation. and involving palestinians in current and future operation efforts. without this, a comprehend of and sustainable regional peace will remain loose. and the challenge is beyond. -- dennis mentioned in our

nuclear problem, the member of the arid -- arab countries still -- with iran. including the economy. rather than the use of military option, because, military options and any retaliation will not -- it will be -- that is why we are trying to avoid a war with iran by any means. at the same time, -- needs to be secured about the nature of the nuclear program. the same goes for its ballistic missiles program and platform and it -- hired from regional

policies. it is the hope of many here that mr. biden's visit will strengthen you a and gcc security and defense capabilities against mission, -- missiles, drones, and other emergency threats area -- many also want to see the visit mark a new approach to regional security. -- de-escalation policies and economic solution. this would be a preload to promoting security and expanding between other countries including palestinians but also

with turkey and israel. it is important to create an outlying benchmark for a successful visit by mr. biden two in particular stand out. the first is whether it results in the creation of a solid approach and another thing, it rainy and -- -- iranian -- and preventing regional confidence. if the u.s. uses its influence to contain iran and integrate iran into [indiscernible] the u.s. strategy will receive a strong push from the allies in the region. the second benchmark is whether

or not it will clarify control of u.s. policy concerning china. that take into account the interest of the arabs. the did to -- the desire of the gcc countries as well as other allies of the u.s. contain strategic balancing and their policies. -- on the nature of u.s. commitment toward security and interest of those partners and border regional -- we do not want to be the battlefield of these competitions between the great powers. the last point is that the middle east has been great strides in regional operation

and coexistence recently. many of the moving blocks for peace are there. but, the u.s. still has a very large rule to play -- role to play in that evolving. and they can do so by showing its commitment to its allies is both -- in touch with their need and concerns. so mr. biden visits, and provides a much-needed opportunity to achieve this. the challenge is there, but this administration should balance between opportunities and the challenges. thank you. >> thank you very much.

very useful. alright i am going to make comments more based largely on observations from a trip i just completed a couple of days ago to saudi arabia. which follows on previous engagements with the saudi's and americans focus on the u.s. saudi relationship. i was where the president will be. obviously the people in saudi arabia are very polite but as some did out to me they are not flowers. joe biden gave a series of unfortunate statements characterizing his trip. that he is not actually coming to me the -- at he's coming because the israelis asked him. -- asked him to come. [indiscernible]

they had their own tough comments about president. such as the atlantic interview in which the conference said he does not really care with the president of the united states has to say. adding that all aside, in my view it is much expectation as it is hoped that when he gets there, that people will find host that want a successful visit. at least because a visit will showcase the convening power that -- has. to have a president visit and be able to bring together the gcc and three other arab readers to meet with biden. -- leaders to meet with biden. therefore he will be in a presidential visit especially with the president whose church with mbs will itself be worth far more than thousand words.

whatever sows the -- what are the saudi's looking for? am i have been in -- in my opinion, his answer to five questions. the first, is president biden wanting to carry on president obama's legacy in terms of renewing the iran nuclear deal, for example, also going to carry on resident obama's legacy in the middle east policy. specifically saudi's would recall -- sharing the gulf with iran. or is president biden coming to confirm the traditional u.s. role of guarantor of saudi security while urging greater regional cooperation and security ration. -- security integration. secondly, is president biden going to be focused in a transactional linz.

in terms of expanding oil? or is he going to propose a broader set of the -- including the defense and security package. that recognized over the last 18 month, during his incidents he, saudi arabia has had a positive role in yemen, an issue that was the topic of resident bidens foreign policy -- president bynum's foreign policy -- president i-8 in foreign policy -- president bidens foreign policy -- [indiscernible] -- a linz which includes everything from women's right to personal freedoms to even some

measure of religion tolerance of fighting against the forces for extremism. which something saudi's these days are proud and committed with. fourth, saudi's know that the president has underscored -- v israelis have urged him to come to saudi arabia. and there question is whether the president is going to press a case for verbalization with israel now or will the white house and israelis recognize that this can be an incremental process one in which improved u.s. saudi relationship is good for israel. we recognize that saudi arabia is a different position than the emirate -- where year and a half ago. who for the benefits of a open full partnership with israel were clearer in the costs at

least seemingly less problematic. saudi's were called of course. they have their names attached to a heritage real issue. something that was not the case with any of the other arab countries which complicate their move along the spectrum towards normalization with israel. fifth, saudi's ask a very fundamental level. is president biden coming to check the middle east box? alas rest of the american residence that is a bookend that is viewed in the region -- withdraw from afghanistan or is he coming to say even with the war of the russian war against you reign, even with the rising challenge of china, even with our own mystic woes, -- domestic woes, that this place, this

region matters. and we as american will invest what is necessary to ensure our common interests in regional stability and security. now my instinct is, is that if saudi's receive even reasonably positive answers to this russian they will respond in kind and in some. though i think it is important we should have modest expectations about their near-term abilities, additional amounts of oil. as my colleagues at the two have when it out and other analysis, i think it's important to underscore that all said and done, saudi foreign today is generally less adventurous, less haphazard, less rogue than it was a couple of years ago. in the late trump early biden period.

there was a sense that foreign policy was all over the map. today, -- any interest saudi's have in interest. gallo -- it still resonates on some level but it's not a crusade more. in its place, you have the ground rents as a regional player. even trying to be a regional leader. having visited him on in preparation to this visit. in other words i think the idea is to project saudi arabia in general and the crown prince specifically is a regional consensus maker. lest a regional changemaker. all of this that we are talking about matters because the biggest issues in saudi arabia today are domestic. and those -- were distractions and from the main show which is dramatic persistent and profound

change. the enormity of which i don't think we have yet fully grasped or appreciated. the scale of what is going on in the country is amazing in terms of infrastructure. with so many medical -- megaprojects that the it is beginning to lose meaning. but i'm referring to something deeper. socio-cultural economic change. at the beginning of visit advocates for -- conservatives waiting to pounce. the real drawback has not come -- at least it is not yet obvious. [indiscernible] government security services are very effective but it is what you do with that. the change is so broad -- broad segment of the population that disinfected -- don't have the support to make a stand. of course the government does thing shrewdly. take the decision to end laws that demand that all saudi

businesses close five times a day during muslim prayer time. this is not a religious perform -- reform but it is a commercial decision by the minister of commerce to give the shop owners the right to choose to open or close as they saw fit. you that way, the result no blowback. we are talking about regional politics but we have to expand the aperture -- the question is what kind reform is coming to saudi arabia? what kind of change russian mark my favorite thing to ask people during my recent trip, -- what kind of change? my favorite thing to ask people during my recent trip -- it is clear the huge investment in tourism will reach a natural wall.

second, loosening restrictions on non-prayer -- non-muslim prayer -- top executives want to move there to fulfill their goal to be the regional head orders for global business. -- headquarters for global business. or third normalization for israel which is a clear goal of leadership but not near is important in the saudi context as it was [indiscernible] formative steps to normalization. yes we macy's the work thing that we talk about [indiscernible] reflects the transformative types of steps are less likely. if for no other reason than the other two things say alcohol

permits or incremental who towards non-muslim prayer. it could have a greater impact. [no audio] >> if you can still see me, this is not -- [inaudible] modest steps and here i will note -- that happened this week that was the religious servant of the year. the chutzpah during the hajj there to the maverick -- the [indiscernible] faith efforts in condemnation of holocaust file which is

controversial but a powerful message to peacemakers throughout the middle east. but still if you're looking for overnight normalization i think it is not in the cards. so i hope the president biden opens the option of how we view saudi arabia. that does not mean avoiding the problems, challenges, areas of conflict area within two decades after 9/11, i think it means appreciating the -- what is at stake here and how it is in our interest to help the in a positive direction. our interest as americans, as well as the interest of the saudi people. so those are my comments and expectation of the bite visit. -- biden visit. so i very happy to have mike coley offered bear remarks while i still haven't lost all my internet access. now we have a chance to your

question and your comments. so, first, if i could turn to tamar i know you made a general presentation about the spirit in which biden will arrive in israel, and you help our viewers navigate the politics. haps you and dennis, -- perhaps you and dennis, some of the problems that president biden will contact when he arrives there. and the new prime minister's and other would be prime ministers like benny gantz, how is president biden going to navigate all of these current and would be ministers russian mark -- would be prime ministers? >> i think it is for him to

decide who gets what in terms of friendly gestures, visit, dealers, and what have you because i attended the queens jubilee party a month ago at the ambassador's residence -- french ambassador's residence, and when we arrived there, one thing to make a speech. but by the head of opposition -- he does not have the right to this annual speech, but someone of the incoming government -- there was much tension in the air because he was refused. and i think this is just an example of the issues that we

have to be dealt with by the foreign ministry x hurts -- foreign ministry experts on these issues. certainly the fact that -- only 10 days ago or so. it would put the minister. they are still a competitor of the position of the largest party. but the situation is so volatile . i'm sure many people at the foreign ministry are making the extreme effort not to offend anyone and not to cross any red

lines. i'm sure some way out will be found. but politicians are not expected as they should have been. >> you are family or with bidens relationship with a broad array of israeli leaders. >> i think he will first and foremost respect the fact that -- is the prime minister. i'm sure preparations were made earlier. but it makes it easier for biden to treat him as his counterpart. he will no doubt see bennett as well as part of the discussion on iran because that is his portfolio.

but he will try to demonstrate he is playing straight. he will be acutely aware he does not want to look like he's playing favorites but the mirror reality he will spend time with p -- with lapid than anywhere else, it will enhance him in -- he will see former prime minister netanyahu. no doubt prime minister net and yahoo! will try to demonstrate have always had a great relationship with joe. they will try to show the informality and biden will play that. he will say we've always been friends but i would not be surprised if he repeats one of his great lines with him -- i

disagree with everything you say but i love you. the bottom line will be he will see everybody, including he will spend a lot of time with president herzog. but the one who will benefit the most from time spent and will have the greatest amount of discussion time with him will be lapid and it will be done in a way that is very straight, in a way that biden tries to highlight how enduring that commitment is. >> a question that came in -- in his washington post op-ed in which he explains the rationale for his trip, president biden unfortunately made no specific reference to the abraham accords.

is there a sense where you are that that may have characterized some people about embracing -- [ audio difficulties] >> i think the rest of the question had to do with president biden not mentioning the abraham accords and does that play into their trip in a larger perspective? >> yes, but he did not mention

abraham by name but he talked about normalization as a base for this security cannot be achieved without cooperation, without normalization. in other words, he did not mention specifically -- this is something the previous administration achieved and there is something in this the u.s. can benefit from.

i will say he will not mention it. but he will discuss this in his meeting. but i think cooperation in the region which has not been announced -- there is cooperation [indiscernible] >> a couple of questions about iran and how it will be handled throughout the trip. if there's progress on these regional security initiatives on

missile defense or anti-drone efforts, how are we supposed to anticipate the response from iran? iran gets a vote in all of this, too. how are the partners going to manage the response? more generally, one of you reminded me that when president trump came to the middle east, the iranians welcomed him with a couple of missiles heading toward riyadh. are we likely to have the iranians reminding everyone they are a major regional player by their actions sometimes over the next few days as a comment on this as well? >> if i were planning a trip for the administration, i would certainly be anticipating that. but i would also be sending messages to the iranians that --

very quietly and three variety of channels that if anything like that is done, they are going to regret it. the iranians should know they could be running a risk they don't want to take on. whether they will take those private messages seriously, the administration makes the claim one of the reasons there has been a decline in the number of attacks on american forces in iraqi and syria in the last couple of months is because they have passed certain messages. whether that has had an effect on the iranians or not, certainly the administration will do it and i'm sure they have done it. if they do something like that, how does that play with the europeans? does it not actually deepen the prospect that some of the countries in the region are bound to do much more with the israelis in united states? my guess is all of those factors

will come into play. i would be taking a number of steps, including moving some forces around for the iranians to understand if they do something like this, it could trigger a response. number two, i think the broader issue of how the u.s. develops its regional security approach and integration is a message designed to address one of the questions you raised. the administration is not only trying to address what is a real issue but trying to send a signal that this is the biden administration, not the obama administration. there isn't going to be any impulse to say you have two share the region with the iranians. one does not see a false set of

expectations about who the iranians are or what they might become. there are no hopes that if you get back in the j poa that it's going to tame other iranian behaviors or they will become more reasonable. there were hopes in 2015 that was the case. obviously it turned out not to be the case and in the biden administration, some of what you are seeing is a deliberative effort to answer that question. we are not going to turn a blind eye to threaten the region. the fact there's a difference on whether to get back in or not which is true not just for the israelis but others in the region tends to increase the impulse of the administration now to prove it can be a good regional partner. i have no doubt one of the things those in the region will here is we have not withdrawn forces from the region. we retain the largest amount of forces in the region. as i said earlier, the irony for

those in the region who want to see more demonstration the u.s. is going to be committed and not pulling away, to emphasize under our umbrella, it -- it requires more for us to be involved. the fact others will be risk -- will be assuming a greater responsibility makes it easier to sustain our involvement. these are two hands that reinforce each other and very much a part of the biden message. >> did you want to make a comment? >> i want to mention something first. this administration -- they know

there is no plan b. there is no redline for this. this is perspective from the iranian and, wanting to negotiate again for the nuclear deal. the iranians want the sanctions to be lifted. we bring stability and security in the region. this is -- this should be in there consideration.

if the americans are thinking by reaching the nuclear deal iran would have stopped in their region, it has invested heavily. this is what we are always saying. look to the other things which is threatening us and to be powerful and not lifting the whole sanctions. without functionality, if we assume we are reaching a deal -- 2015, all this money went to

more militias. without this, we will not reach stability. >> the israeli attitude is very similar to what others are describing. where is your plan b and what will it consist of on one hand. but in the j poa, you are going to be giving dramatic amount of resources so they can cause all this trouble in the region -- imagine how much more they will do when they are not.

>> we have lost rob but we have a few more minutes. tomorrow, i might just ask you a question, do you think the biden trip will have any real impact? can it be of any help to lapid if he's given greater exposure? is that in the cards right now? >> i'm not sure about it.

i don't see as something that can make lapid more acceptable or -- right now we have a problem as an important player in the international community. it is more symbolic and -- his position as a highly qualified player. it is also a burden because

right now everyone is dealing with the domestic politics changing day by day. of course, while president biden goes, everyone will be following him. so lapid will not get with what is happening on the ground here. for him, it's not exactly the right time. to fresh and preoccupied with very critical issues as far as the upcoming elections are

concerned. >> ac that you are back. >> i just want to sum up because our time is about to run out. a lightning question to all of you. some of your opening remarks, by the end of this week, president biden will have come and gone from israel, palestinian areas and saudi arabia. do you think we will collectively, whether it's arab countries, intercept israel or even the foreign policy elite have a clear understanding of where the president is on issues of regional security?

>> i think rob is frozen again. why don't we start with you and then i will wrap up. >> i think before the visit, there are many visits from the administration, national guard -- what both sides want from each other. there may be some agreements and there will be assurance from the u.s. side to peace and stability

and security in the region which has been perceived as u.s. is leaving. maybe some differences in how this will be materialized. there will be that formula. there will be some collaboration under the auspices of the u.s.. >> i tend to believe the side

know very well who feels what. like when you come to visit, you bring some goodies. you will show your good intentions. there might be some minor issues we will deal with for maybe the first time. maybe you give him some open support. but everything is now before us. >> i would just say the foreign policy elite fear will draw the

conclusion the biden administration is not pivoting away from the middle east per se and it has shored up its position generally with its more traditional partners in the region, but there will still be lots of questions because one trip is not going to transform everything and we still have to see what's going to happen. i'm not one of those who think it is over with. i suspect it may still come back in one form or another. rob i don't know if you are back and went to make any final comments. i saw you were there briefly. if not, let me thank you. it was a really interesting discussion and we should get together again in the aftermath of the trip to make some judgments about what we saw and not what we predicted. thank you very much for joining us and thank rob, wherever you are.

>> thank you. >> today, and words her money recognizing people dedicated to protecting democracy. speakers include witnesses from the january 6 committee hearings. watch live at 4 p.m. eastern on c-span. you can watch on our free mobile video app, c-span now, or online at c-span.org. >> c-span brings you an unfiltered view of government. our newsletter, word for word, recaps the day for you from the halls of congress to daily press briefings to remarks from the president. scan the qr code at the right bottom to sign up for the email and stay up today on everything happening in washington each day. subscribe today using the qr code or visit c-span.org/connect to subscribe anytime. >>